吴东哲, 瞿超艺, 饶志坚, 沈钰琳, 徐旻霄, 张建红, 黄鹏, 刘诗杰, 赵杰修. 2025: 中国及全球成年人归因于超重和肥胖的疾病负担变化趋势与未来风险预测. 体育科学, 45(5): 3-16. DOI: 10.16469/J.css.2025KX037
    引用本文: 吴东哲, 瞿超艺, 饶志坚, 沈钰琳, 徐旻霄, 张建红, 黄鹏, 刘诗杰, 赵杰修. 2025: 中国及全球成年人归因于超重和肥胖的疾病负担变化趋势与未来风险预测. 体育科学, 45(5): 3-16. DOI: 10.16469/J.css.2025KX037
    WU Dongzhe, QU Chaoyi, RAO Zhijian, SHEN Yulin, XU Minxiao, ZHANG Jianhong, HUANG Peng, LIU Shijie, ZHAO Jiexiu. 2025: Disease Burden Attributable to Overweight and Obesity among Adults in China and Globally: Trends and Future Risk Prediction. China Sport Science, 45(5): 3-16. DOI: 10.16469/J.css.2025KX037
    Citation: WU Dongzhe, QU Chaoyi, RAO Zhijian, SHEN Yulin, XU Minxiao, ZHANG Jianhong, HUANG Peng, LIU Shijie, ZHAO Jiexiu. 2025: Disease Burden Attributable to Overweight and Obesity among Adults in China and Globally: Trends and Future Risk Prediction. China Sport Science, 45(5): 3-16. DOI: 10.16469/J.css.2025KX037

    中国及全球成年人归因于超重和肥胖的疾病负担变化趋势与未来风险预测

    Disease Burden Attributable to Overweight and Obesity among Adults in China and Globally: Trends and Future Risk Prediction

    • 摘要: 目的:系统量化1990-2021年中国与全球成年人归因于超重和肥胖的疾病负担时空演变特征,精细解析年龄−时期−队列效应的独立贡献,并据此预测至2050年疾病负担的发展轨迹。方法:利用全球疾病负担(global burden of disease, GBD)研究数据库,提取1990-2021年中国及全球成年人相关数据,以年龄标化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rates,ASMR)和年龄标化伤残调整寿命年率(age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate,ASDR)为关键评估指标。应用估计年度百分比变化(estimated annual percentage change,EAPC)模型量化疾病负担的总体时间趋势。运用贝叶斯年龄−时期−队列(bayesian age-period-cohort,BAPC)模型精细解析年龄、时期及出生队列对疾病负担的独立影响,预测至2050年的变化趋势。结果:1990-2021年,中国归因于超重和肥胖的ASMR(EAPC=1.25%)与ASDR(EAPC=1.71%)呈攀升态势,且增长速率显著高于全球平均水平(分别为0.17%和0.66%)。其中,男性群体的负担增速更为突出(ASMR的EAPC为1.69%,ASDR的EAPC为2.07%),显著高于女性(分别为0.85%和1.36%)。中国各年龄段相关负担普遍加重,青壮年群体增长显著,且与全球模式不同,我国老年群体的负担亦未见缓和。BAPC模型预测结果表明,预计至2050年,中国ASMR和ASDR将延续快速增长轨迹,总体ASDR(4 248.74年/10万人)将高于全球水平(3 413.90年/10万人),男性ASMR(77.34人/10万人)将高于全球男性同期预测值(73.18人/10万人)。结论:1990-2021年中国归因于超重和肥胖的疾病负担呈现快速增长模式,未来负担形势的严峻性与复杂性凸显,特别是男性群体面临的风险尤为突出。

       

      Abstract: Objective: To systematically quantify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the disease burden attributable to overweight and obesity among adults in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, to meticulously analyze the independent contributions of age-period-cohort effects, and to project the development trajectory of this disease burden from 2022 to 2050. Methods: Data for Chinese and global adults from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) were utilized as key assessment indicators. The Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) model was employed to quantify the overall temporal trends in disease burden. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was used to meticulously analyze the independent impacts of age, period, and birth cohort on the disease burden, and to forecast trends from 2022 to 2050. Results: From 1990 to 2021, both the ASMR (EAPC=1.25%) and ASDR (EAPC=1.71%) attributable to overweight and obesity in China exhibited an upward trend, with growth rates significantly exceeding global averages (0.17% and 0.66%, respectively). The increase in burden was more pronounced among males (ASMR-EAPC=1.69%, ASDR-EAPC=2.07%) compared to females (0.85% and 1.36%, respectively). The related burden generally increased across all age groups in China, with a significant rise observed in young and middle-aged adults. Unlike the global pattern, the burden in the elderly population in China did not show signs of alleviation. BAPC model projections indicate that by 2050, the ASMR and ASDR in China will continue their rapid growth trajectory. The overall ASDR (4 248.74 per 100 000 person-years) is projected to surpass the global level (3 413.90 per 100 000 person-years), and the male ASMR (77.34 per 100 000 persons) is expected to exceed the projected global male figure for the same period (73.18 per 100 000 persons). Conclusions: The disease burden attributable to overweight and obesity in China demonstrated a rapid growth pattern between 1990 and 2021. The future burden presents considerable severity and complexity, with the male population facing particularly prominent risks.

       

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