全民健身基本公共服务供给水平的时空分异、收敛特征及演进趋势

    Spatial-Temporal Divergence, Convergence Patterns, and Evolutionary Trend in the Supply Level of National Fitness Basic Public Services

    • 摘要: 把握全民健身基本公共服务时空分异及动态演化特征,对推进全民健身公共服务均衡可及、构建更高水平全民健身公共服务体系具有重要理论与现实意义。基于多维视角构建评价指标体系,运用熵值法测度全民健身基本公共服务供给水平,并采用Dagum基尼系数及其分解、收敛模型和马尔可夫链等方法,研究系统分析了其时空分异、收敛特征及动态演进趋势。研究发现:1)全民健身基本公共服务供给水平整体趋升态势明显,但“由西向东逐渐增强”的空间分异格局未发生根本性改变;2)东、西部地区的内部差异呈缩小之势,而全国层面和中部地区的内部差异则呈扩大之势;区域间净差异是导致区域差异显著的主要因素,其贡献程度近年呈缩小之势;3)全国及东、中、西部地区的全民健身基本公共服务供给水平存在显著的绝对β收敛与条件β收敛特征,朝各自稳态水平演进;我国全民健身基本公共服务供给水平具备迈向更高水平的发展潜力,但同时也面临两极分化和低水平地区增长乏力的潜在风险。对此,研究提出如下发展建议:1)“宏观调控+分域施策”,统筹全民健身事业协调发展;2)“示范引领+空间溢出”,推动全民健身跨区协同发展;3)“数智引擎+多元供给”,助推全民健身基本公共服务迭代升级。

       

      Abstract: Analyzing the spatial-temporal differentiation and dynamic evolutionary patterns of national fitness basic public services carries both theoretical and practical significance for advancing equitable access to these services and building a higher-tier national fitness public service system. This study constructs a multidimensional evaluation index system to assess the supply level of national fitness basic public services using the entropy method. Employing the Dagum Gini coefficient (with decomposition), convergence models, and Markov chain analysis, we systematically explore their spatial-temporal divergence and convergence patterns, and dynamic evolutionary trend. The findings reveal three key insights: 1) While the overall supply level demonstrates a marked upward trajectory, the entrenched spatial hierarchy—“increasing from west to east”—remains unaltered. 2) Internal disparities are narrowing in eastern and western regions but widening nationally and within the central region. Net interregional differences dominate overall disparities, though their contribution has diminished in recent years. 3) Absolute and conditional β-convergence are observed nationwide and across eastern, central, and western regions, suggesting progression toward region-specific steady states. Despite the country’s potential to achieve higher service standards, risks of polarization and stagnation in underperforming areas persist. To address these challenges, we propose: 1) A dual strategy of “macro-level governance + regionally tailored policies” to enhance coordinated development; 2) Cross-regional collaboration through “model demonstrations + spatial spillover effects”; 3) Accelerate the evolutionary advancement of national fitness basic public services via “digital intelligence-empowered solutions + multi-stakeholder provision.”

       

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