中国竞猜型体育彩票发展对策的研究

    Research on the Developing Strategies for the Toto in China

    • 摘要: 运用相关文献研究理论与思路, 基于当前中国经济和彩票业的现实, 从定量角度, 分析了影响中国竞猜型彩票销售的各类因素及其作用。相对其它彩票, 竞猜型彩票销售对于经济水平的正向反应更加敏感;教育水平和男性人口比重等因素对于其销售独有正向作用;其销售在世界杯年份会显著增加, 但与各省份足球水平没有显著关系, 其公益金率下降会减少体育彩票整体的销量和公益资金;网络售彩会提升竞猜型彩票销量, 但作用相对较小。中超彩票和赛马彩票推出时机尚不成熟。结合代表国家或地区体育博彩发展的经验, 基于整体社会福利视角, 在“返奖率保持稳定”和“网络售彩继续禁止”情况下, 竞猜型彩票的竞猜对象应继续以高水平欧美比赛为主, 开发中国周边国家赛事彩票, 探索其它竞赛彩票;退市过时玩法, 调整传统玩法竞猜场次结构, 将北京单场推广至全国;提高奖金封顶限制, 重大赛事期间开展积极营销;特别是要设计出适于中国竞猜型彩票投注者心理的赔率。体彩中心应在“监管行政化”基础上注入“经营市场化”元素, 协调各方面关系, 并与政府各部门、学界以及国际彩票界开展多方跨界合作。

       

      Abstract: Based on the current reality of both the economy and lottery industry in China, this paper analyzes various factors that affect the sales of the Toto in China and their roles from the quantitative point of view by using related research theories and ideas. Comparing with other lotteries, the selling of the Toto is more sensitive to the economic level, whose overall effect is positive; other factors such as education level and proportion of male population also have positive effect on its selling distinctively; the selling of the Toto will increase significantly during the World Cup year, but there is no significant relationship between the its selling and the level of provincial football; the decline in the rate of the public funds on Toto will negatively affect the total sales of Sport Lottery; Internet Selling Channel will positively affect the sales of the Toto in spite of a small effect. The timing of both the issuance of the Chinese Football Association Super League Toto and the Horse Racing Lottery is not yet mature in China. In light of the experience from the development of sports gambling in representative countries and areas, and from the perspective of overall social welfare, this paper puts forward the following suggestion. Under the circumstances that “the rate of public funds on Toto remains stable remains stable” and “internet selling channel continues to be banned”, the betting object of the Toto should continuously focus on the high-level matches in European and American, and explore Toto targeting on neighboring countries race and on other tournaments; eliminate outdated types, adjust the structure of traditional Toto kind; propagate Beijing Toto to whole China; increase the prize capping limits, and carry out marketing activities during mega events. In particular, it is necessary to design the odds that are suitable for the psychology of Chinese bettors. At the same time, China Sports Lottery Center should bring the elements of operating marketization into the basis of supervisory administration, coordinates its relationship with various aspects; and cooperate with various government departments, academia, and the international lottery industry.

       

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