Quantitative Prediction Research on the Physiques of the Elderly in Chinese Urban based on Grey Model

Objective:This paper quantitatively predicts the physical conditions of the elderly in the urbans from 2015 to 2025,analyzes the law of physique development and provides data references to improve the urban elderly physical health.Methods:We establish the Grey EGM Prediction Models,taking previous four times national physique monitoring data of the urban elderly as time series,to forecast the urban elderly physique.Results:from 2015 to 2025,body shape indicators:each index sequences are on the rise,while totality of the growth rate are smaller than before 2014,and each index increase is waistline circumference>weight>chest circumference>hip circumference> height,the ratio of BMI and waist-hip continue to grow;body function indicators:lung capacity shows a trend of growth and the increase growth of female is greater than that of male;physical quality indicators:male and female gender grip strength decreased,and the women fell more than men.Conclusions:Our predictions show that speed of physique in the overall level will slow down in the next 10 years,some body function and qualities will change the status of the rapid decline around 2000,most of the indicators will slow or even reverse the rapid decline,such as respiratory function and flexibility will be in a slight increase,while obesity,grip and balanced capacity will continue to decline,especially overweight and a trend of apple obesity shape should cause alarm.Therefore,we should increase daily physical activities and reasonable diet in order to improve the levels of physical health.