• 国家社科基金自助期刊
  • 中国体育类核心期刊
  • 中国人文社会科学期刊AMI
  • 综合评价(A刊)权威期刊
  • 《中国社会科学引文索引》(CSSCI) 来源期刊
TU Chun-jing, JIANG Chong-min, ZHANG Yan-feng, WU Dong-ming, CAI Rui, LI Guo-qiang. 2016: Quantitative Prediction Research on the Physiques of the Elderly in Chinese Urban based on Grey Model. China Sport Science, 36(6): 92-97. DOI: 10.16469/j.css.201606010
Citation: TU Chun-jing, JIANG Chong-min, ZHANG Yan-feng, WU Dong-ming, CAI Rui, LI Guo-qiang. 2016: Quantitative Prediction Research on the Physiques of the Elderly in Chinese Urban based on Grey Model. China Sport Science, 36(6): 92-97. DOI: 10.16469/j.css.201606010

Quantitative Prediction Research on the Physiques of the Elderly in Chinese Urban based on Grey Model

More Information
  • Received Date: March 16, 2016
  • Objective:This paper quantitatively predicts the physical conditions of the elderly in the urbans from 2015 to 2025,analyzes the law of physique development and provides data references to improve the urban elderly physical health.Methods:We establish the Grey EGM Prediction Models,taking previous four times national physique monitoring data of the urban elderly as time series,to forecast the urban elderly physique.Results:from 2015 to 2025,body shape indicators:each index sequences are on the rise,while totality of the growth rate are smaller than before 2014,and each index increase is waistline circumference>weight>chest circumference>hip circumference> height,the ratio of BMI and waist-hip continue to grow;body function indicators:lung capacity shows a trend of growth and the increase growth of female is greater than that of male;physical quality indicators:male and female gender grip strength decreased,and the women fell more than men.Conclusions:Our predictions show that speed of physique in the overall level will slow down in the next 10 years,some body function and qualities will change the status of the rapid decline around 2000,most of the indicators will slow or even reverse the rapid decline,such as respiratory function and flexibility will be in a slight increase,while obesity,grip and balanced capacity will continue to decline,especially overweight and a trend of apple obesity shape should cause alarm.Therefore,we should increase daily physical activities and reasonable diet in order to improve the levels of physical health.
  • 邓聚龙.灰色系统气质理论[M].北京:科学出版社,2014:118-133.
    党耀国,王俊杰,康文芳.灰色预测技术研究进展综述[J].上海电机学院学报,2015,18(1):1-7.
    国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[EB/OL].(2015-09-01). http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2015/indexch.htm.
    刘思峰,杨英杰.灰色系统研究进展(2004-2014)[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2015,47(1):1-18.
    刘思峰,杨英杰,吴利丰,等.灰色系统理论及应用[M].7版.北京:科技出版社,2014:141-151
    李国强,江崇民,李米环.城区成年人静坐行为模式研究[J].体育科学,2016,36(3):52-60.
    全国老龄办.我国城市居家养老服务研究[EB/OL].(2008-02-21). http://www.docin.com/p-1484603134.html.
    姚天祥,巩在武.灰色预测理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2014:80-98.
    王超,陈佩杰.体力活动研究的现状及趋势[J].北京体育大学学报,2012,35(8):43-49.
    吴超群,吕筠,李立明.体力活动、膳食和吸烟行为的环境影响因素[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2013,17(5):442-446.
    CARROLL D D,DORN J M,FULYON J E.Facilitators and barriers to active transportation in U.S.adults,Health styles,2009[J].Med Sci Sports Exe,2012,44(5):S18-19.
    DENG J L.Control problems of grey systems[J].Systems Control Lett,1982,1(5):288-294.
    LIU S F,HU M L,FORREST J,et al.Progress of grey system models[J].Transact Nanjing Univ Aeronautics Astronautics,2012,29(2):103-111.
    PAPADOPOULOS C,QUILTER T R,NETHERY V M,et al.Perceptions of the built environment in two micropolitan communities of different population densities[J].Med Sci Sports Exe,2012,44(5):S20.
    TAKENAKA K,SAITO M,SHIMAZAK T.Assessment of coping with high-risk situations for exercise slip and lapse among Japanese exercise adherents[J].Med Sci Sports Exe,2012,44(5):S89.

Catalog

    Article views (3) PDF downloads (1) Cited by()

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return