A Quantitative Study of Contribution of Driving Factors to the Growth of Sports Lottery Sales in China-Leveraging the LMDI Method

Employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method with adjustments tailored to the Chinese economic and lottery landscape, this study integrates research interviews with sports lottery institutions across various levels and regions.Conducting a monthly and temporal analysis, it investigates the demographic, economic, lottery industry, and institutional driving factors impacting the overall national(excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and provincial contributions to sports lottery sales growth during different periods. The study explores the influence of events such as “prudent policy issuance on lottery regulation”and “World Cup hosting” on sports lottery sales, draws comparisons with corresponding indicators from the China Welfare Lottery.Findings reveal that the primary drivers of China's sports lottery sales growth are, in sequence, national-level economic factors,industry dynamics, and institutional influences. Local-level institutional factors play a marginal role, with the negative impact of declining population on lottery sales evident in certain provinces. The two lottery prudent regulatory policies have initially achieved their intended purpose but raised some negative issues. During the World Cup period, concerted efforts from sports lottery institutions and support from regulatory authorities led to a substantial increase in sports lottery sales. The traditional complementary relationship between sports lottery and welfare lottery has recently shifted towards a rather competitive dynamic. Based on these insights, recommendations include the strengthening of the National Sports Lottery Management Center's overall leadership role,the effective utilization of subjective initiative by local sports lottery management centers, proactive engagement between sports lottery-related institutions and regulatory authorities, and a mutually beneficial relationship between sports lottery and welfare lottery.